Black and White
Feb 3 2012 - Mike Williams - Bull VS. Bear
Good Morning.
New acronym for us all: PFAMP = pray for a market pause
You see, in each recovery there is a time when new lessons need to be addressed. We covered this in last week's notes. The good news is that the good news keeps getting ignored:
- Employment numbers are getting better slowly. The better news here is that as the ink was drying on the positive headline this morning, press coverage immediately began to tear apart the data to find the "problem". Old beliefs die hard.
- The latest Wall Street survey shows the average stock exposure recommended by Wall Street Strategists is 55.6% of a portfolio. The lowest number of the last 20 years? 55.4%
- Yesterday in the annual conference in Orlando, TD Ameritrade released their latest client survey: 14% were bullish, the rest were bearish and undecided. The gran majority wanted the "future to be more clear" before they invested again. By the way, that is German for "I prefer to pay more for my investments"
- Earnings are again a surprise: to the upside.
- Cash balances are at record highs and are adding over $1.6 Trillion a year to balances.
I could go on.
Let's keep this simple as we go into the first weekend of February:
- Time is flying by--and things are getting better.
- Sadly, darkness brings your best deals.
- Fear is your ally in building long-term investment plans.
- Yes, it all stinks....but we never made the rules :)
I am Praying
Let's face it---there will be a time when all will regret being afraid. I know I will.
Use red ink and setback weeks to build--even when it hurts.
So join me as we try our best to walk through the graveyard of bad news. Everyone together now: PFAMP! PFAMP! PFAMP!
More later---make sure you check your video from earlier in the week.