Little Worse Than a Boring Market
Jul 1 2009 - Mike Williams - Morning Minutes
Good Morning:
HAPPY 4TH OF JULY FOR YOU AND YOURS!
Be safe, relax and enjoy your family and friends!
It will not have been easy, but we will all get through this together, with a new sense of humility and many new lessons learned.
While we are celebrating our independence, please remember the young men and women fighting right now to protect our rights to same. Let's get them home as quick as we can...and thank them this weekend in a prayer.
Items
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Review and Summary
- The summer doldrums are setting in...they will get worse over the next week or two, peaking as August arrives.
- ADP's latest data show more job losses but unfortunately, as covered here for months, that will go on for several more quarters....look for signs of explosive small business activity by the end of Q1, 2010.
- The second quarter of 09 is over and in the books. It started with a roar, topped off with massive global, crowd fear. It went out with a whimper and deadlocked views of the battlefield ahead, fighting over a very thin trade range...now for the better part of two months!
- Mortgage apps are down as rates have bounced a bit and then settled back
- Consumer sentiment fell a tiny bit for June but is now twice the level of March
- Industrial orders perked up at a rate exceeding the last 5 years
- Still little sign of earnings warnings and this would have been evident by now in the cycle if there was still a massive reduction underway....more of a hint that the worst may have already been felt
The Holiday Week Is In
It is July 4th weekend.....enjoy, expect sloppy trade and very little volume.
By tomorrow, lower Manhattan will be even more of a ghost town. The choppy atmosphere is performing as expected and eliciting the responses a contrarian would like to see.
The Stats, Fund Flows and Sentiment issues are noted for you inside.